Decision Links

 

DL.001 Los costos de esperar demasiado para decidir                  (2020.12.23)

El NYT presenta una interesante y bien documentada reseña del sesgo de Boris Johnson, el actual Primer Ministro de Gran Bretaña, quien usualmente deja para último momento decidir sobre asuntos tan importantes como medidas contra la aparición de una variante más contagiosa del coronavirus, y la realización de un convenio post-Brexit con la Unión Europea.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/world/europe/brexit-talks-coronavirus.html

 

Coincidentemente, Organization Science acaba de publicar un artículo sobre las malas consecuencias de demorar la selección de una estrategia.

Delays Impair Learning and Can Drive Convergence to Inefficient Strategies

Hazhir Rahmandad, Michael Shayne Gary

Published Online: 15 Dec 2020

https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2020.1405

 

Abstract

With so many possible choices, why do managers adopt the strategies they do? We identify delays between adopting a strategy and observing the full implications of that choice as a critical factor influencing strategic choices. Using a simulation of a service firm, we conduct two behavioral experiments to investigate how delays interact with outcome uncertainty to shape learning, strategy adaptation, and performance outcomes. Two mechanisms emerge from how different subject groups perceive, react to, and learn in the presence of delayed feedback and uncertainty. First, when multiple viable strategies exist, longer delays lead both general participants and experienced managers toward alternatives that have rapid returns. When those alternatives are suboptimal, delays may strengthen convergence to inefficient strategies. Second, delays and uncertainty may also induce learners to persist with their a priori strategies. Managers show larger confidence in their priors and thus underperform general participants when the underlying task structure diverges from those priors. Both mechanisms can undermine performance. Moreover, delays and uncertainty may reduce heterogeneity in strategies and performance in more dynamic, uncertain environments, leading to convergence as tasks grow more complex and where decision makers possess similar priors.

 

 

 

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